The Detroit Tigers are focused on winning a World Series this season. But a long-term storyline hovering over the team is the future of Tigers ace Tarik Skubal.
Skubal is making a bid for his second straight American League Cy Young Award, and many in baseball wonder how long he’ll stay in Detroit. While the Tigers obviously want to keep the southpaw as long as possible, the rising cost of pitching on the free agent market could be too much to convince ownership to write the check after the 2026 season.
To that extent, Skubal’s odds of staying with the Tigers may have decreased this past week as a massive extension could force front offices to rethink their approach when it comes to keeping their hometown talent.
Max Clark, Kevin McGonigle Will Get Paid in Aftermath of Roman Anthony’s Extension
The Boston Red Sox made headlines when they agreed to an eight-year, $130 million contract extension with Roman Anthony this week. According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the deal also includes “significant escalators” that could increase the total of the contract up to $230 million. Regardless of whether the incentives are difficult to achieve (including winning eight straight Most Valuable Player awards beginning in 2026), the deal still comes with sticker shock for a player who has appeared in just 48 major-league games.
You may wonder what that has to do with Skubal and his upcoming contract, which could be worth more than $400 million. But it has him involved as collateral damage with prospects Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle coming through the pipeline.
McGonigle is ranked fifth while Clark is ranked ninth on MLB Pipeline’s top 100 prospects list after the deadline. Both players are considered to be valuable pieces of Detroit’s future, and the Tigers may look to lock them up in the same way the Red Sox did with Anthony and Kristian Campbell, who signed an eight-year, $60 million contract extension shortly after his MLB debut last April.
Again, you may still say, “Who cares? Sign Skubal, let the kids earn their money and worry about it later!” That’s not a bad strategy, but front offices are pivoting to spending money now to reduce their costs later.
The Athletic’s Tim Britton explains that if a player debuts midway through a season, they could achieve “Super Two” status with their service time. That gives a player another shot at arbitration after their third calendar season and could increase their earnings as they move toward free agency. While players could wait, the short-term security for the years they would be under team control anyway is too enticing to turn down.
The Red Sox have been able to lock up Anthony and Campbell on reasonable deals, but they will likely reach another agreement with shortstop Marcelo Mayer soon. While they are likely to be under the megadeal that Anthony agreed to, it still costs money that could be used on Skubal.
If Skubal pushes for $30 to $40 million per season, his future in Detroit could come down to how much ownership wants to spend on payroll. President of Baseball Operations Scott Harris may have already shared his approach to the situation, hinting that his goal is to get to the postseason every year instead of overreacting to a window.
That philosophy could unintentionally create a Skubal window if they choose to let him walk. At the same time, it could be the building block of a long-term foundation for success if they elect to take the route the Red Sox have.