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Midseason Lions Move Already Paying Massive Dividends Ahead of Push for 1-Seed

The Detroit Lions' huge midseason acquisition has had a huge impact on their chances of winning the NFC and the Super Bowl.

By Jason Schandl

Nov 24, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Detroit Lions head football coach Dan Campbell smiles on the sidelines before the game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images
Nov 24, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Detroit Lions head football coach Dan Campbell smiles on the sidelines before the game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images / Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images
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Injuries have ravaged the Detroit Lions, but the team remains the frontrunner in the Super Bowl race. This is thanks in part to the stellar coaching and the depth of the Detroit defense, but you also can't underrate the impact that the front office's mid-season work has had on the team.

The Za'Darius Smith trade was mocked by some fans (especially salty Green Bay Packers fans), but making a late-round draft pick swap to add a 32-year-old edge rusher who made the Pro Bowl as recently as 2022 felt like a pretty low-risk move.

And now we're seeing how massively impactful the deal was on the defense, and on the Lions' chances of winning their first ever Super Bowl.

Za'Darius Smith Making Huge Impact on Lions' Super Bowl Chances

Smith has now played essentially a quarter of a regular season (four games) in Detroit. That's barely enough time to get fully up to speed on a new defense's schemes, play-calls and adjustments, but he's still been reliable enough to be on the field for at least two-thirds of the LIons' defensive snaps in three of those four games.

And his production has been absolutely undeniable. Consider how his pass-rush numbers (per PFF) from four games in Detroit compare to nine games in Cleveland this year.

Lions

Browns

Games

4

9

Pressures

20

27

Hurries

14

20

QB Hits

2

2

Sacks

4

5

Smith's four-game pace extrapolated out to the 13 games every team has now played would give him 13 sacks and 65 pressures. For context, both of those numbers would tied for the highest marks in the NFL so far in 2024. Smith is playing like a legit Defensive Player of the Year candidate.

So to every Packers fan who told us "there's a reason the Browns trade him for so little" or "you'll see why he's had to change teams so often," Lions fans offer a sincere thank you. Whatever kind of poor reputation they want Smith to have, it allowed Detroit to add one of the most productive defenders in the NFL mid-season for almost no cost.

And now the Lions sit as heavy Super Bowl favorites. FanDuel Sportsbook has them at +270 to win it all, while no other team has better odds than even +500 (the Kansas City Chiefs).

When you consider that the top threats to the Lions' Super Bowl chances all have great offensive lines (PFF ranks the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs and Bills all top-nine in pass protection) and mobile quarterbacks, a strong pass rush will be crucial for Detroit's chances of making a deep run. And when you consider that the Lions are 1.5-point favorites against the Bills this week, it looks like oddsmakers agree that Smith's impact on the defense should help put Detroit over the top.

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