The Detroit Pistons are on the verge of making the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2008. In the win-or-go-home game against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday, the Pistons have a chance to advance to the next round to face the New York Knicks.
It has been an up-and-down series for both teams. The Pistons overwhelmed the Cavs in the first two games of the series with their physicality and intensity. Cleveland was able to turn things around once the series moved to its home court. Donovan Mitchell and James Harden had big moments in their three straight wins to take the lead.
Then, the Pistons bounced back in a big way in Game 6 and came away with the impressive road win. Home teams win Game 7s over 74% of the time, so the Pistons enter the game as slight favorites. But what needs to happen for them to win their second consecutive Game 7 of the playoffs?
Pistons have the advantage over the Cavaliers in Game 7
Jalen Duren finally showed signs of life in Game 6, delivering arguably his best playoff performance of the season. That needs to continue. The Pistons need their second-best player to win his matchup against Jarrett Allen on both ends of the floor.
Paul Reed has taken over the backup center spot and should continue to give the Pistons solid minutes off the bench. Duncan Robinson, Caris LeVert, and Kevin Huerter are still dealing with injuries. Robinson and LeVert were able to suit up in Game 6, and barring an unexpected last-minute development, both veterans should be available.
Robinson's contributions will be especially important. The Pistons desperately need his shooting and off-ball ability to score enough.
However, Game 7 is unlikely to be a shootout. These games are generally low-scoring, slow, slogs. In fact, this series has been the lowest-pace series in these playoffs, with only 91.6 possessions per 48 minutes. Expect Game 7 to be even slower.
Both teams have been scoring better than expected in this series. The Pistons have a 117.7 offensive rating through six games, significantly higher than their points per 100 possessions in the Magic series. The Cavaliers have a 113.9 offensive rating, a solid number against Detroit's elite defense.
It would be surprising to see either team scoring that efficiently in Game 7. The Pistons relied on unsustainably hot shooting in a few games this series, as they have hit 40.9% of their threes so far. While their shooting may regress to the mean, they can take better care of the ball and execute better down the stretch.
Turnovers have been a big issue for both teams and could be a deciding factor in this game. This allows the Pistons to get out in transition, where they are a better team than the Cavs. The fewer half-court possessions there are, the better it is for Detroit's offense.
Detroit continues to have a physicality advantage over the Cavs. They have a 34.3% offensive rebounding rate for the series. Combine that with the Cavs' 16.3 turnovers per game, and the Pistons have been winning the possession battle throughout the series. To make up for this difference, Cleveland has to shoot the ball very well, which they haven't done so far in the series, but are certainly capable.
More importantly, the Cavs' stars have to step up. Mitchell had an incredible stretch in the second half of Game 4, but besides that, Ausar Thompson has largely slowed him down. Harden's Game 7 struggles are well-documented at this stage of his career. Unless both stars show up and outplay Cade Cunningham, the Pistons should have the advantage.
A slow game where both teams find it difficult to score should benefit the Pistons. It won't be easy, but Detroit should emerge victorious.
Final score prediction: Pistons 104 - Cavaliers 96
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