The Detroit Pistons' front office made the decision not to make a big splash this offseason. Instead of going big for a second star to pair with Cade Cunningham, they opted for moves on the margins. They essentially swapped out Tobias Harris, Isaiah Stewart, and Caris LeVert for Isaiah Joe and John Collins in the rotation.
Whether this was an upgrade remains to be seen, but Joe and Collins bring different elements to Detroit. The Pistons could end up as a better offense, but a worse offense, which in turn could result in a similar-caliber team.
Pistons' bet on John Collins may not pay off
This is certainly a big bet on Collins. The 28-year-old power forward will be the third-highest-paid player on the Pistons, assuming Jalen Duren signs a new deal. He is coming in to replace Harris, who was arguably Detroit's second-best player in the playoffs.
Those are big shoes to fill, but there seems to be an idea that Collins is an upgrade over Harris. This could end up being the case because Harris is 34 years old and could suffer an age-related decline. But expecting Collins to give the Pistons more than what Harris provided over the last two seasons may be unrealistic.
The hype around the Collins addition was evident in ESPN's Detroit Pistons season preview. NBA analyst Zach Kram called Collins the "biggest x-factor" of the season, praising his "sneakily excellent jump shot."
This is where the analysis on Collins goes wrong. There seems to be this idea that Collins is a much better shooter than Harris because of his three-point shooting percentage over the last two seasons. Yes, Collins shot over 40% from downtown last season. But he is not an elite threat by any means.
Being a shooting threat is as much about volume as it is about accuracy. Collins took 4.2 threes per 36 minutes last season. This is far below the positional average for forwards and ranks 166th in the NBA. He simply doesn't take enough threes to be an elite floor-spacer and an off-ball threat. He can hit open threes, for sure, and this is a good thing, but calling someone who made 1.3 threes per game last season a shooting upgrade over anyone is a stretch.
Plus, Collins hasn't played playoff basketball in three years. The last time he played in the second round of the playoffs was in 2021. Collins' defense, which has largely been mediocre at best for most of his career, hasn't been tested at the highest levels in a long time. We have no idea how his game will translate to playoff basketball in his age-29 season.
In ESPN's preview, Andre Snellings referred to Collins' days with the Hawks and suggested that he could produce one of his best seasons playing next to Cunningham. When Collins was a 20-10 player, he was a 22-year-old high-flyer playing for a lottery team. He is not the same athlete anymore, and it's unreasonable to expect a similar production from him in Detroit.
There are things Collins does better than Harris, and he could very well be an upgrade. But this is more of a possibility than a probability. Pistons fans have to realize that before expecting Collins to produce like a high-level starter.
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