The Detroit Pistons are the favorites to win the Eastern Conference. They have the best record in the league and have firmly established themselves as a true title contender. While they have to be fully focused on the present, the Pistons are in a unique situation among contenders as their best is yet to come. With all of their best players ahead of their prime, the Pistons have a chance to have a championship window that extends over the next decade.
This requires savvy roster-building and smart decision-making by the top brass. Which young players to keep long-term and which ones to let walk will be a key factor in determining how sustainable a winner the Pistons can be.
Ron Holland Has to Show More in Final Stretch to Earn Long-term Role
One of the more difficult decisions the front office will have to make involves Ron Holland. On one hand, Holland is still 20 years old, is only in his second season in the league, and has physical and athletic tools that give him intriguing upside. On the other hand, he hasn't improved much since entering the league and isn't contributing a lot to Detroit's success.
Holland is averaging 20.5 minutes per game this season, up from his 15.6 in his rookie season. Despite his uptick in playing time, there isn't much that has trended upward. Holland's statistical profile has largely stayed the same, as his usage rate, 3-point attempt rate, assist percentage, and free-throw rate are all eerily similar to last season. If anything, his efficiency has taken a tumble. He is still not making any threes, and his two-point field goal percentage went from 60.8 percent to 53.3 percent this season. He also basically has the same number of turnovers as assists.
The former fifth-overall pick is clearly a liability on offense. This will be further exacerbated in the playoffs when the game slows down, and there are fewer transition opportunities. Teams already don't guard Holland in the half-court, and in the postseason, this could be a bigger problem for the Pistons.
Holland's calling card in the NBA is his defense. He has the best defensive on/off rating on the team as the Pistons allow 8.2 fewer points per 100 possessions with Holland on the floor than when he is off, per Cleaning the Glass. His defensive versatility and intensity are very important, but the Pistons can get that from Ausar Thompson and Javonte Green. Holland needs to show more offensively to justify a place in Detroit's long-term goals.
If Holland can't find a way to make a consistent impact over the next few months, the Pistons will have to consider moving on from him. Holland should still have plenty of trade value in the offseason, even if the next few months don't go as planned. If Detroit can't win multiple playoff series, it will likely be because it can't generate enough good looks and hit enough shots on offense. Then, it will behoove the Pistons to try to turn Holland into more of an offense-first option.