The Detroit Lions recently exercised the fifth-year option on Jahmyr Gibbs' contract, keeping him with the team for at least two more seasons. They also have the ability to franchise tag him in 2028, meaning that Gibbs is almost certainly not going anywhere any time soon. It also means that the Lions will have some flexibility and patience regarding the star running back's next contract.
We may not know when exactly it will get done, but a contract extension for Gibbs will get done. The Lions are known to take care of their own perhaps more than any other team in the NFL, and the sheer production the 24-year-old rusher has had in Detroit so far makes this a no-brainer decision. But what will his next contract look like?
Will Jahmyr Gibbs be the highest-paid RB in the league?
Gibbs is almost certainly a top-three running back in the league. Given his age and production so far, he is definitely the most valuable one. This will help him reset the RB market with his next deal.
Breece Hall just got a three-year, $45.75 million extension with the Jets, making him the third-highest paid RB in the league in terms of annual average value. Among rushers, Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey have separated themselves from the rest, making $20.6 million and $19 million per year, respectively.
While Barkley and McCaffrey are at different stages of their careers, the former's contract with the Eagles after winning the Super Bowl could give us an idea about what the deal for Gibbs could look like.
Coming off the Super Bowl win, Barkley signed a two-year, $41.2 million contract that includes $36 million in guarantees and $15 million more in incentives. This not only made him the most expensive running back in the league, but also the first one to ever cross the $20 million AAV threshold.
It's safe to assume that Gibbs and his agents will look at that annual value as a benchmark and will try to beat it. There will be value in being the highest-paid RB ever for Gibbs and in getting your client the highest total contract value for an RB for his agent.
If the Lions aren't willing to go over $20 million per year, there is a risk that an extension may not get done this offseason. Would GM Brad Holmes take that risk with his best offensive weapon?
At the same time, Gibbs would be wise to get an extension done sooner rather than later. For a running back in today's NFL, things can change very quickly. Locking down as much guaranteed money as you can would certainly be a savvy move.
Therefore, we can reasonably expect that there should be enough mutual interest to get a deal done before the season. Assuming that it will be a four-year deal like most of Detroit's extensions, slightly over $20 million per year makes some sense.
Prediction: Four years, $82 million
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