The Detroit Pistons have all but clinched the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. With a 4.5-game lead over the No. 2 seed Celtics with only 12 games left in the regular season, the Pistons feel good about their chances of having home-court advantage until the NBA Finals.
Unfortunately, however, the Pistons have bigger concerns than their playoff seeding. Cade Cunningham is out with a collapsed lung and doesn't have a timetable to return. Pistons fans are desperately hoping to get a positive injury update over the next few weeks.
Cunningham's injury makes who Detroit will face in the first round of the playoffs that much more important. The Pistons would love to face a team that they can take care of without their star guard. With only 2.5 games separating the fifth-seed and the tenth-seed in the Eastern Conference, however, the Pistons' first-round opponent is anyone's guess.
There are currently six teams with a realistic chance of facing the Pistons in the first round, even if Detroit somehow loses the No. 1 seed. Let's take a look at which of these would pose the biggest challenge for the Pistons, ranked from the easiest to hardest matchup.
1. Philadelphia 76ers
On paper, the Sixers have more talent than arguably any other team in this list. Yet, that talent is rarely available at the same time. Right now, all three of their All-Stars are out. Joel Embiid hasn't played in a month. Paul George is still serving a suspension, and Tyrese Maxey remains sidelined with a finger injury.
While all three players are expected to return between now and the postseason, it's very difficult to trust them to stay healthy for an extended period of time. It's not like the Sixers were dominant when all three were available. Embiid is a defensive liability, and George is about to turn 36 and has been nowhere near an All-Star level over the last two seasons. There is not enough time for all three to return, play themselves into shape, get out of the Play-In tournament, and seriously challenge the Pistons.
2. Toronto Raptors
The Raptors have been a better team than most of these teams on this list throughout the season, but they are trending downward. They are a very mediocre 12-12 over the last two months and are below-average in both offensive and defensive rating, per Cleaning the Glass. They don't strike fear into their opponents in a meaningful way on either end of the floor.
Offensively, Toronto is rather predictable and not dynamic. A heavy diet of Brandon Ingram midrangers is not going to be enough against the elite Pistons defense. Detroit's defense is simply too good, with or without Cunningham, to be challenged by the Raptors' attack.
3. Atlanta Hawks
This is a team trending in the opposite direction to the Raptors. The Hawks are 14-5 since the trade deadline and are top-ten in both offense and defense. This has been helped by a very easy schedule, propelling them to the sixth seed.
Atlanta has been a very good defensive team ever since trading Trae Young. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson, and Onyeka Okongwu can make for a formidable defensive group. They will pose some challenges to the Pistons, but they likely don't have enough offensive juice to score enough. Detroit shouldn't fear any team that relies this heavily on CJ McCollum in the playoffs.
4. Miami Heat
It would be unwise for any team not to take the Heat seriously. They may not be the dominant force they once were, but Erik Spoelstra and the organization deserve respect. Miami consistently finds ways to punch above its weight, and it was only three seasons ago that it made the NBA Finals as the No. 8 seed.
Miami plays a different style of basketball than most teams in the league. They play with pace and intentionality. They don't run many pick-and-rolls and trust their offensive players to beat their defenders one-on-one. This could be difficult against the Pistons, but it still requires an adjustment. It may not be a coincidence that the Heat won two out of the three games between the two teams this season.
5. Charlotte Hornets
There will be no love lost between these two teams. After a massive brawl that cost suspensions to Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren earlier in the season, a playoff clash between the two sides would bring a ton of heat.
The Hornets are the tenth seed right now, so they have an uphill battle to make the playoffs, but they are playing the best of all the teams on this list right now. In fact, since January 1st, the Hornets have the best net rating in the entire NBA, with +11.2. Their 121.6 offensive rating in this span is easily the best mark in the league.
Charlotte is young and inexperienced, but this is a team that has all the confidence and momentum on their side, and one that the Pistons would love to avoid.
6. Orlando Magic
This is a team that is much better than its record, and the main reason has been injuries. Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, and Paolo Banchero were only able to play 297 possessions together this season, per Cleaning the Glass. They have a net rating of +12.2 when all four were on the floor. That mark is elite enough that the Pistons should have concerns if they go up against them in the first round.
It's still not clear whether they will be at full strength in the postseason, but Franz Wagner is reportedly on his way back. Orlando is one of the few teams on this list that has enough upside on both ends of the floor to challenge the Pistons, even with Cunningham back. Detroit fans would be wise to root for the Magic down the stretch so that they can move up out of the Play-In Tournament and into the fifth or sixth seed in the conference.