The Detroit Tigers couldn’t have imagined a first half of the season. Coming out of the MLB All-Star break, the Tigers own the best record in baseball at 59-38 and a 11.5-game lead over the Minnesota Twins in the American League Central. FanGraphs estimates Detroit to have a 99% chance to make the postseason and they have a good chance of pushing for their first pennant since 2012 and their first World Series title since 1984.
But while everything has come up aces (and the Tigers have one of those too), they need to make sure they come with the same performance in the second half. One of the six players that represented Detroit in the All-Star Game has had a dream season of his own but he’ll need to address his biggest concern as he comes out of the break.
Tigers Need Javier Báez to Show His First-Half Wasn’t A Fluke
One of the biggest surprises this season has been the performance of Javier Báez. Signed to a six-year, $140 million contract before the 2022 season, the Tigers hadn’t gotten their money’s worth as he hit .221/.262/.347 with 32 home runs and 163 RBI over the first three seasons (360 games) of the deal.
Some may believe it was shocking to even see Báez on the team this year after his disastrous 2024 season. After hitting .184/.221/.294 with six homers and 37 RBI in 80 games, he was replaced by Trey Sweeney and left off the Tigers’ playoff roster after undergoing surgery for a left hip injury.
The ailment left Báez’s days numbered with the Tigers, but he’s been one of the best redemption stories in baseball during the first half of the season. The 32-year-old hit .275/.310/.442 with 10 homers and 39 RBI and has offered to play in the outfield to allow Sweeney to play shortstop. While Sweeney’s performance earned a demotion, Báez has made a seamless return to his natural position and has been a break-even player in defensive runs saved.
After starting the All-Star Game in center field for the American League on Tuesday night, Tigers fans have to be thrilled with what they’re getting. But Báez’s first half also saw him decline as the Midsummer Classic approached.
Báez was white-hot to begin the year, hitting .319/.357/.513 with five homers and 27 RBI in his first 34 games. But after that stretch was capped off with a two-homer, six-RBI performance in a 10-9 win over the Boston Red Sox on May 13, he’s hit .240/.272/.387 with five homers and 12 RBI over his past 45 games.
Baseball Savant also paints a picture of regression as Báez has been below average in several metrics including a 43% chase rate, a 3.2% walk rate and an average exit velocity of 88.1 mph.
If Báez continues to hit at his current rate and plays solid defense, the Tigers will take it as they push toward the postseason. But if he declines to the form he displayed over the past two seasons, it will place an even bigger emphasis on finding an impact bat ahead of this month’s trade deadline.