Invitation to NCAA Dance a long shot for Michigan

If the NBA didn’t make a practice of stealing college players before their eligibility expired, some NCAA coaches might be in the final four every season.

Usually, schools like Louisville, Kentucky and North Carolina succeed despite rebuilding their programs each season.

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So after two runs deep into the NCAA tournament, Michigan coach John Beilein finds himself in a similar dilemma.

A dream team

Had four of his eligible players not opted for real paychecks, the Wolverines would have a starting lineup something like this:

Trey Burke, PG (2012-13) CONSENSUS NATIONAL PLAYER OF THE YEAR: John R. Wooden National Player of the Year … Naismith National Player of the Year … Oscar Robertson National Player of the Year … Associated Press National Player of the Year … NABC National Player of the Year … Sports Illustrated National Player of the Year … CONSENSUS ALL-AMERICAN: John R. Wooden All-America Team … Associated Press All-America first team … NABC Coaches’ Division I All-America first team … USBWA All-America first team … Lute Olson All-America team … Sporting News All-America first team … Sports Illustrated All-America first team … CBSSports.com All-America first team … Basketball Times All-America first team … NATIONAL HONORS: Bob Cousy Award for Nation’s Top Point Guard … NABC District 7 first team … USBWA’s District V Player of the Year … USBWA’s All-District V Team … Associated Press Preseason All-America Team … USBWA Oscar Robertson National Player of the Week (Jan. 8) … BIG TEN HONORS: Big Ten Player of the Year, as selected by coaches & media … All-Big Ten first team, unanimous selection by coaches & media …

Nik Stauskas, SG (2013-14) • 2014 Big Ten Player of the Year (Coaches & Media)
• 2014 All-Big Ten first team (Coaches & Media), only unanimous selection for both teams
• 2014 NABC All-America (first team); Associated Press and Sporting News All-America (second team); USA Today and Basketball Times All-America (third team); John R. Wooden All-America team and Lute Olson All-America team
• 2014 USBWA District V Player of the Year and All-District V Team
• 2014 NABC All-District 7 (first team)
• NCAA Tournament All-Midwest Regional Team (2014) and All-South Regional Team (2013)
• Big Ten Tournament, All-Tournament Team (2014)

Caris LeVert, WF 2014 All-Big Ten, second team (Coaches & Media)

Glenn Robinson III, WF 2014 All-Big Ten, honorable mention (Coaches & Media)
• 2013 All-Big Ten, honorable mention (Media)
• 2013 Big Ten All-Freshman Team

Mitch McGary, C• 2014 Preseason All-America by Associated Press, USA Today and Sporting News (first team); Blue Ribbon College Basketball and Athlon Sports (second team)
• 2014 Preseason All-Big Ten
• 2013 NCAA Final Four, All-Tournament Team
• 2013 NCAA Tournament, All-South Regional Team

Bench:

Zak Irvin, Derek Walton, Jr., Spike Albrecht

Of course, McGary would have been suspended for the year and LeVert would also be out for the season, but this still would be a very formidable lineup.

A berth in the Big Dance would have been a formality, but in reality, this season’s Michigan team will be hard-pressed to make the NCAA tournament.

Beilein must coach

With a 13-8 overall record and a 6-3 Big Ten mark, Beilein must do one of the best coaching jobs of his 37-year coaching career, if Michigan hopes to stay out of the NIT (see table below).

Tuesday’s (Jan. 27) starting lineup of Ricky Doyle, Spike Albrecht, Abdur-Rahkman, Zak Irvan and Aubrey Dawkins has no where near the talent or experience of the imaginary group above, but the group played enough good defense to crush Nebraska 58-44. Add a little help from Max Bielfeldt off the bench with 12 points and nine rebounds helped considering second-string center Mark Donnal was ill.

"“One of the things I was really working with Zak (Irvan) on over the summer — and continue to work on — was rebounding and assists. For him to get 12 rebounds and three assists is a huge step in his growth,” Beilein talked about Irvan who added 14 points. “It was a good win for us, and now for the first time we’ll have a four-day break between games. We will get some rest over these next days before our next game.”"

In recent years, Michigan was invited to the Big Dance with 21-14 and 9-9 (Big Ten) records in 2008-09 and 2010-11.

Each of those teams finished 1-1 in the Big Ten Tournament.

Big Ten tournament ahead

Considering the Wolverine injuries (LeVert, Walton and an undisclosed minor injury to Albrecht) Michigan will have a tough time going 3-6 in the Big Ten’s second half, finishing 9-9 for the season.

So how many games must Michigan win in the league tournament?

Regardless of whether the Wolverines finish 8-10 or even 10-8, they will be seeded into the round of eight.

Michigan should be favored to win that game, but will have to face one of the top four seeds in the following quarterfinal round. That means the Wolverines will battle the likes of Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and maybe Maryland.

Michigan might need a Big Ten tourney win

Even if Michigan makes the Big Ten semis, they could be shut out because of ugly non-conference losses to New Jersey Institute of Technology and Eastern Michigan.

A semifinal win and a spot in the Big Ten championship game, won’t guarantee anything.

U-M would have 19-15 overall record and a 12-10 league record counting the tournament games. Of course, winning the tournament will give Michigan the automatic berth and might be Michigan’s only chance to dance.

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The Wolverines open the second half of the Big Ten season Super Sunday, Feb. 1 at 1 pm. CBS will provide the telecast.

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U-M Hoops: Invitation to NCAA tourney would be a feather in Coach Beilein’s cap

By Joel Greer | Jan 29, 2015