Detroit Pistons 2015 NBA Draft Lottery Odds


The Detroit Pistons and the the 13 other teams in the 2015 NBA Draft Lottery will learn their fate on Tuesday, May 19. Each team sends a representative to be present for the announcement and representing the Pistons will be general manager Jeff Bower.

The full list of team representatives was released this week:

It’s the usual mix of players, coaches and front office personnel, but notably absent are any family members serving as representatives. Dan Gilbert has sent his son as the Cleveland Cavaliers in recent years while Mallory Edens, daughter of a Milwaukee Bucks co-owner, got quite a bit of screen time last year.

The lottery really only determines the first three picks with the reverse standings filling in the remaining non-playoff team picks after that. The way the lottery plays out can be put into three categories for the Pistons – good, neutral and bad.

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The good: This would see the Pistons hitting the lottery to end up with one of the top three picks. Unfortunately, with just the eighth-best odds in the entire lottery, the chances of this happening are not good. The Pistons have a 2.8% chance to land the first overall pick, 3.26% chance they pick second and 3.89% chance they pick third. Total chance of landing a “good” outcome: just 9.95%

The neutral: This would see the Pistons hold in their original position and end up with the eighth overall pick. It means that they didn’t move into the top three, but neither did anyone behind them. Total chance of a “neutral” outcome: 72.44%

The bad: Not only do the Pistons not hit the lottery, but someone with longer odds than them does. With six teams behind the Pistons, the odds they get jumped are actually better than their odds of moving into the top three, although the odds of getting bumped down two or three picks is exceedingly small. There is a 16.79% chance the Pistons end up with the ninth pick, 0.81% chance of getting the tenth pick and a 0.01% chance of picking eleventh. Total chance of landing a “bad” outcome: 17.61%

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