Detroit Tigers Playoff Odds Pegged at 31 Percent for 2016
By Matt Snyder
The FanGraphs playoff odds report gives the Detroit Tigers a 31.7% chance of reaching the postseason in 2016.
Baseball stats and analysis website FanGraphs released their first set of 2016 postseason odds today using a combination of the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems.
The Detroit Tigers check in at No. 7 in the American League with an 81.5 win total projection and a 31.7% chance to reach the postseason.
That 31.7% figure includes the Wild Card round, so their chances of reaching the division series falls to 24.8%. The chance of going all the way and bringing home World Series rings? Just 2.0%.
Those percentages (and the projected win total) might seem a little bit low initially. After all, the Tigers spent the offsesaon overhauling the bullpen and then also signed two(!) $100 million free agents.
But Justin Upton and Jordan Zimmermann aren’t coming in as pure additions to the team. They’re (more or less) replacing David Price and Yoenis Cespedes who were traded away at the end of last summer.
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In a lot of ways, the 2016 Detroit Tigers are a lot like the 2015 Detroit Tigers, just a year older at several positions. The bullpen additions appear to be real and tangible, but it’s still not a world-beating unit. They’ll maybe get a few extra wins there, but the rest of the difference will have to be made up for in getting breaks, hoping for bounce-back seasons, and avoiding injuries.
The good news for the Tigers, though, is that no one in the American League is projected for a run away win total. The Boston Red Sox top the league with an 88.4 win projection and the Cleveland Indians are projected to lead the AL Central at 87.2 wins.
In fact, the entire league is stacked inside a 12-game gap between 76.7 (the Royals!) and 88.4 (the aforementioned Red Sox). The American League picture is one giant shrug emoji. Everyone has at least a 10% chance at making the playoffs, according to this odds report.
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It would not be a complete surprise for any division in the American League to finish in just about any order. That’s what we’re reading here. It should be a fun season.