NFL: The Death of the Touchback May Be Greatly Exaggerated

Changes to the NFL’s kickoff rules to bring a touchback to the 25-yard line has brought concerns about unintended consequences, but are they overblown?

Perhaps the biggest rule change for the 2016 season that was adopted at the owner’s meetings this month was the decision to spot the ball on the 25-yard line after a kickoff touchback. The aim is to reduce the number of high-impact collisions that occur on kickoffs by incentivizing the decision to take a knee instead of returning the ball out of the end zone.

However, this rule has been met with worry about unintended consequences. By incentivizing keeping the return man from leaving the end zone, the league is disincentivizing the kicking team from even putting it in the end zone to begin with. If teams suddenly opt for shorter kickoffs at or near the goal line, there could be an increase in kickoff returns, not a decrease as intended.

But will that really happen?

This isn’t the first time in recent memory the NFL has tinkered with kickoff rules in the name of player safety. Kickoffs were moved from the 30-yard line to the 35-yard line in 2011 with the expectation that the number of touchbacks would increase, thereby decreasing the number of dangerous return plays.

As I wrote on SideLion Report during the 2011 preseason, the change in kickoff position meant kickers needed five fewer yards for a touchback, but it also meant coverage units were starting five yards closer. But instead of hanging a high kick and letting coverage units try to pin the return man inside the 20-yard line, coaches have apparently been more comfortable taking the sure-bet of a touchback.

The unintended consequences didn’t come to pass with the 2011 rule change so I’m taking an “I’ll believe it when I see it” approach to the 2016 rule change.

Adding to my stance is the subset of kickoff data in which the spot of the kickoff was moved up even further following the assessment of a penalty. If coaches even had thoughts in the back of their heads about playing a shorter kick, it should show up in those situations.

With the help of the pro-football-reference.com play finder, I found 69 instances of a kickoffs taking place from a team’s own 40-yard line or better between 2011-2015. That subset includes one end of game squib kick and one opportunistic attempt at an onside kick. Removing those from the set to look at only “true” kickoffs, 77.6% resulted in touchbacks (52 out of 67).

More from Detroit Lions

• Lions vs. Bears Week 14 Opening Odds Disrespect Detroit
• Signing This Former Pro-Bowl CB Would Be Huge Mistake for Lions
• Forecasting the Rest of This Lions Season (Score Predictions)
• Lions Get Exciting Injury Update on Rookie QB Hendon Hooker
• Betting Preview: Best Bets for Lions vs. Packers Thanksgiving Day Game

Compare that to all non-onside kickoffs for the 2015 season that resulted in a touchback rate of about 58%. So with their coverage units no more than 60 yards away, coaches opted for the security of the touchback at an even greater rate than usual.

In an extreme example, the Detroit Lions kicked off from the Philadelphia Eagles’ 45-yard line in a 2012 game after 20 yards of penalties were assessed against the Eagles. Despite kicking from a spot that would have been the equivalent of a 55-yard field goal, Jason Hanson booted the ball through the end zone for a touchback. It’s a result that would have been unacceptable had it been a punt in similar field position, but was deemed acceptable, at least by Jim Schwartz in that instance, to avoid the chance of a kickoff return.

Moving the touchback from the 20 to the 25 may start to tip the scales the other way but it is hard to see it would do so drastically. NFL coaches are notoriously risk-averse and have a penchant for control – is giving up an extra five yards in a touchback enough to change tendencies?

In some cases it might, such as at Florida State following the NCAA’s decision to bring kickoff touchbacks to the 25-yard line starting in 2012.

I’m not sure this is a good proxy for what will happen at the NFL level. Florida State enjoys a talent advantage over most of the teams on their schedule and had a kicker, Roberto Aguayo, who could be drafted as high as the second round in the 2016 NFL Draft. It’s a lot easier to play ‘kick and cover’ with one of the game’s best kickers and a coverage unit that out-talents the opposing return unit. NFL teams will not hold that same advantage most weeks.

Let’s go back to the subset of kickoffs on short fields. Of the 15 that did not result in touchbacks, the return yardage ranged from eight to 44 with an average of 21.4 yards per return. This highlights both the risk and reward of playing a shorter kick. Sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn’t.

Next: Most Underrated Detroit Lions in Team History

Like any other piece of football strategy, coaches are likely to approach the kickoff with the strengths and weaknesses of their coverage unit and the opposing return unit in mind. In some cases that will mean more kick returns, but the surety of the touchback will remain up for consideration.