Detroit Lions 53-Man Roster Prediction Discussion

After each doing a Detroit Lions 2016 roster prediction, three Detroit Jock City writers discuss their picks and the process of predicting the final roster.

Three Detroit Jock City writers – Erik Schlitt, Colton Wesley and Zac Snyder – each made early 53-man roster predictions for the 2016 Detroit Lions. You can check out each prediction with the links below:

Erik: dlvr.it/Ln6rSb

Colton: dlvr.it/Ln6rMN

Zac: dlvr.it/Ln6rG5

What follows is a discussion about our rosters including the decisions we made, areas we disagreed, areas we agreed and philosophies we held as we went through the process of picking our 53-man rosters.

Zac: As you put your 53-man roster together, was there anything that surprised you? Maybe some decisions that were easier or harder than you thought they would be or a result you didn’t think you’d come to?

Erik: For me, most of the roster fell as I expected it to. What surprised me was when I was debating the last few positions they were all defensive players. I think this is because almost all of the offensive players are very versatile and that versatility allows them to fill multiple roles. The toughest part, was trying to decipher if Bob Quinn would place an emphasis on the front four or in the secondary. I went with the front four and Brandon Copeland because Teryl Austin likes to rotate up front and Copeland provides a pass rushing depth this team may need.

Aug 20, 2015; Landover, MD, USA; Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) is hit by Detroit Lions linebacker Brandon Copeland (95) after throwing the ball in the third quarter at FedEx Field. The Redskins won 21-17. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports /

Colton: For me the biggest surprise was just how little talent there is in the secondary. Once you get past Quin and Slay, there’s not a whole lot there. So players like Crezdon Butler or Isaiah Johnson might make it over a player with more upside like Copeland or maybe Gabe Wright, who are stuck at the bottom of the depth chart at a position the Lions are deep in.

Zac: It sounds like that battle for the final roster spots for all three of us came down to Brandon Copeland or another defensive back. I was definitely tempted to hold on to Isaiah Johnson, as Colton did, but I felt like Copeland filled a bigger need.

Colton: Yeah, that’s a difficult one. I’d love to see Copeland make the roster, but I think that the depth at the position might be his downfall. The Lions are going to have to keep an extra defensive back just to provide options in a secondary that is full of question marks. Either someone needs to impress and answer those questions to free up a spot or Copeland would need to really impress and bump someone like Caraun Reid down. Copeland is still practice squad eligible, so that might factor in as well.

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Zac: Was there anyone you included that made you hold your nose as you put them on the roster? For me it was Jon Bostic. I’m not sure there is any upside there at this point in his career but it isn’t like the Lions have great alternatives.

Erik: Yeah Bostic barely made it for me. I gave him an edge based on the fact that Quinn traded for him but I don’t have confidence in him making the roster. Killebrew may be used in a Money Linebacker role at times, as I suggested pre-draft, and Copeland has linebacker experience, so I could easily see Bostic getting cut.

Colton: I completely agree on Bostic. I would have loved to have included Copeland over him, but Quinn seems to have some kind of affinity for Bostic, whom he himself recommended the Patriots trade for. Also, Jimmy Landes. Nothing against him, but I still don’t understand using a fifth-round pick to get him and Muhlbach has been a long-suffering Lion for so long that it was hard to leave him out.

Zac: Similarly, was there a player you wanted to include but just didn’t end up having a roster spot for?

Erik: Dwayne Washington intrigues me. He reminds me of Knile Davis, 6’1” 220 pounds, 4.44 speed, above average explosion and catching ability. He needs to improve his ball security and lateral agility but he can fly. If he can prove to be a competent special teamer, either as a returner or gunner, he could make this team.

Colton: Copeland, definitely. He has a lot of upside and versatility, so I wanted him to make it. I also like Quinshad Davis, he has plenty of length and athleticism, but he does not have the speed you want in an outside receiver. He’s a longshot at this point, but I am intrigued by him. Also, he’s got a pretty good arm.

Erik: Quinshad Davis ran a 4.69 forty at North Carolina’s pro day but Quinn did give him a $3,000 signing bonus to come to Detroit.

Colton: I’m really curious to see how signing bonuses for UDFAs play into Quinn’s roster decisions. Mayhew used to give out some pretty big signing bonuses and those guys almost always made the roster (Isaiah Johnson, Cornelius Lucas, Joseph Fauria). This year, Chase Farris was guaranteed $20,000 total and Cole Wick signed a $10,000 bonus. I have Farris on the practice squad but I think Wick makes the 53-man. Also, Adairius Barnes is guaranteed $10,000 total, so I think he’s practice squad-bound at least.

Erik: Barnes, Ian Wells and Charles Washington are the three UDFA nickel cornerbacks that Quinn brought in and I agree at least one of them ends up on the practice squad. I also give the edge to Barnes here.

Zac: I’m interested to see how much the Quinn/Patriots connection plays out. I know I gave the benefit of the doubt to guys like Bostic and Tavon Wilson when I set my roster prediction but I’m wondering if we’re overestimating that impact to some degree. We all had them in; did those guys give you any pause or did the Quinn/Patriots history make them more solid to you?

Erik: Quinn’s familiarity with players is something that I think will definitely be a factor. It’s also why I gave the edge to Jeremy Kerley and Darrin Walls who were both with the New York Jets the last three seasons. As division rivals with the Patriots, Quinn saw them twice a year and knows what they are capable of.

Colton: That connection was what put Bostic and Wilson on the roster for me. That will be one of the biggest variables, though. Every general manager has certain tendencies, and because this is Quinn’s first preseason as a GM we don’t know what his tendencies are, even regarding players he’s worked with before, which makes those final cuts difficult to predict.

Zac: It isn’t as hot of a topic as when Kellen Moore was on the roster but I feel like we should talk about the quarterback situation. All three of us had the Lions carrying two quarterbacks with Jake Rudock the odd man out. Did you go into your roster-building set on those two or did you debate carrying a third, or even going with just Rudock behind Stafford?

Oct 28, 2015; Chandler /

Colton: I struggled a bit over that one. The Lions don’t need a third quarterback on the roster, but they spent a sixth-round pick on Rudock. They haven’t given us any indication that they’re going away from Orlovsky necessarily, but the idea of spending a pick on a guy and then cutting him and stashing him on the practice squad just seems odd. I think that the need for depth at other positions keeps Rudock off the 53-man this season, but the Lions almost definitely see him as the number two quarterback of the future, maybe after Orlovsky’s contract expires in 2017.

Erik: When I did my initial run through I had him on the roster, but as I started narrowing down the other positions, I couldn’t justify keeping a third quarterback. I don’t see him supplanting Orlovksy for the primary backup role in 2016 and that relegates his value to the film room. I have a hard time thinking another team will pick him up off waivers so I think he ends up on the practice squad for this season and will compete for the number two spot in 2017.

Zac: I’m biased toward keeping just two quarterbacks on the active roster but I went into it thinking there could be a spot for Rudock. Ultimately I had no problem filling the 53 with other players, and Rudock’s practice squad eligibility “won” out.

Erik: I’m higher on Rudock than most. When I watched him develop at Michigan last season, I came away impressed with his potential. That being said though, he is still likely at least a year away from competing.

Zac: OK, I was the one who left Brandon Pettigrew off the roster. My thing is I’m still hung up on his cap number more than the injury. To me, if he’s healthy, that makes it easier to move on. The Lions have cap space, but why use a chuck of it carrying a limited role player when it could be rolled over to next year? Tell me why I’m wrong about Pettigrew!

Nov 22, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions tight end Brandon Pettigrew (87) high fives fans after the game against the Oakland Raiders at Ford Field. The Lions won 18-13. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /

Colton: I think Pettigrew makes the roster almost by default because there isn’t anyone else on the roster who inspires a lot of confidence as a blocking tight end. There’s a reason that Mulligan has bounced around between so many teams. Granted, Mulligan’s cap hit is much smaller, but cutting Pettigrew would mean taking an additional $2,000,000 cap hit, which means that the Lions can pay about $4.6 million to keep Pettigrew or pay about $2.6 million to keep someone who has very limited upside. The Lions have the cap room to pay for Pettigrew, and I think the difference in talent between the him and Mulligan will likely be worth the higher price to the front office unless Pettigrew really struggles in the preseason or doesn’t get healthy.

Erik: There are several respected Lions writers that have a similar line of thinking as Zac does here, but like Colton, I have a hard time seeing Pettigrew get cut. The cap number isn’t an issue for me either way, i can see both points, to me it comes down to his health. We don’t know where he’s at, and may not know for a while, but the fact that Quinn only addressed the tight end position by bringing in Mulligan and a few undrafted free agents tells me they feel comfortable with Pettigrew’s recovery.

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Zac: Last question: who is one player not on your predicted roster that you feel is most likely to be on the actual 53-man roster for week one?

Colton: Brandon Copeland! He’s my last man cut right now, mostly because he’s practice squad eligible, but the Lions really seem to like him and if someone gets hurt or if he impresses in the preseason, I can absolutely see him making the 53-man roster, preferably (to me) over Jon Bostic. Also, Corey Fuller. He’s still got some talent and plenty of upside, but he’s got a lot to prove if he’s going to make it over other guys like Jay Lee.

Erik: It’s Isaiah Johnson for me, and like Colton, it would be Bostic’s spot that he takes. Everything about him during OTA’s was positive and defensive backs are a such a priority in the league right now. Whenever you talk about a defensive back and the first thing you think of is that he’s a sure tackler, that player has a chance to succeed in the NFL.

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Let us know how you’re thinking the roster will come together. You can leave a comment below or find us on twitter.

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