Detroit Tigers: Nick Castellanos’ stock is flatlining
By Matt Snyder
Nick Castellanos was once a hot prospect for the Detroit Tigers but his stagnant bat and poor defense has caused his stock around the league to fall precipitously.
The Detroit Tigers had a can’t-miss prospect on their hands in 2013 when third baseman Nicholas Castellanos was named the eleventh best prospect in all of baseball in MLB.com’s midseason update — one spot above Noah Syndergaard. He was tearing up AAA as a 21 year old and looked ready for the next step.
Castellanos broke into the major leagues on a full-time basis in 2014 but his development in the big leagues has stalled. In his four seasons as a professional, he has managed to produce a batting line above league average just once, posting wRC+ lines of 95, 94, 119, and 96 (100 is average).
Defense at third base was always going to be a concern for Castellanos, but the hope was that he could develop to be something close to average with a bat that would more than make up for the difference. None of that has happened.
In 548 career games he’s compiled a career WAR of just 2.1 (by FanGraphs’ framework implementation, 0.7 by Baseball Reference). That makes him significantly below average in terms of total value — closer to a replacement player than a starter.
Castellanos ranks 15th out of 15 qualified third baseman in just about every advanced defensive metric from 2014 to 2017. Offensively he ranks 31st out of 45 hitters (who have primarily but not exclusively played third base) in that same time frame.
The Tigers haven’t given up on the Castellanos, but there are signs that few (if any) teams around the league expect him to ever produce at the level his prospect status suggested. He was placed on waivers this month (as most players are after the non-waiver trade deadline) and, according to Jon Heyman’s post on Monday, he went unclaimed.
This technically means that no team took the opportunity to get him for free. In reality most teams probably knew that the Tigers wouldn’t simply give him away, and so didn’t bother to submit a claim, but it does show how far his stock has fallen over the years. The Tigers acquired Jeimer Candelario — an MLB-ready third baseman — from the Cubs at the trade deadline in a possible move signaling their willingness to part ways with Castellanos.
Still, no contender wanted to try to get his bat for the stretch run and no rebuilding franchise thought it was worth their while to attempt a buy-low offer at this time. The Tigers might try to move him in the offseason, but, unless he shows major life in September, there probably will not be much of a market for his services.
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The Tigers have little reason to jettison him from the roster while he’s still under team control as an arbitration-eligible player, but his bet might be trying to make things work as an outfielder or hope some space clears up at first base. In either case, it’s still going to be his bat that determines his success or failure and he hasn’t yet proven that he can be a valuable major league hitter.