Tensions were running high for the Detroit Tigers as they began their playoff run against the Cleveland Guardians on Tuesday afternoon. After blowing a 14.5-game lead in the American League Central, the Tigers were at risk of wasting a magical season, going up against the team that had blown past them in the standings over the final month of the year.
For one day, there was nothing to worry about – and that was because Tarik Skubal was on the mound. The left-hander turned in a brilliant performance, allowing one run over 7.2 innings and striking out a career-best 14 batters in a 2-1 victory. The 14 punchouts tied a franchise postseason record, matching Joe Coleman’s mark from 1972, and put Tigers fans at ease with an early lead in the best-of-seven series.
But while the anxiety was stuffed away, it could come right back this winter. Skubal’s outing was just as much of a message as it was a brilliant performance, and it could mean that if the Tigers decide not to pay him, somebody else will.
The Price Just Went Up for Tigers to Keep Tarik Skubal
Skubal’s next contract is one of the underlying concerns for the Tigers heading into the offseason. While he’s established himself as one of the game’s true “ace” pitchers, that comes with a cost as he enters his final year of team control in 2026.
When Skubal hits the market the following winter, a historic bidding war is going to commence. Starting pitcher contracts have exploded over the past year, as fellow top left-hander, Max Fried, cashed in with an eight-year, $218 million contract from the New York Yankees. While Fried has validated the contract by becoming a challenger to Skubal’s defense of the American League Cy Young Award, he also has a fraction of the resume, with just three All-Star appearances and two top-five Cy Young Award finishes to his name.
Skubal is also three years younger than Fried and won the pitching triple crown in 2024, leading the AL in wins (18), ERA (2.39), and strikeouts (228). As if his Cy Young campaign wasn’t dominant enough, Skubal turned in an even better season in 2025, going 13-6 with a 2.21 ERA and 241 strikeouts in 195.1 innings.
This is why Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press speculated that Skubal could seek a contract in excess of $400 million with a term of eight to 10 years. The worst part? That estimation was made last Christmas, meaning those numbers could have only gone up with Skubal’s dominant season. There’s a chance that number could be pushed even higher if the Tigers allow Skubal to pitch through his final season of team control, creating a sense of urgency to get the deal done this winter.
There are factors in the way of this, including the potential addition of a salary cap in the next wave of MLB’s labor negotiations and the risk of signing any pitcher to that big of a deal. Skubal is also represented by Scott Boras, who encourages players to maximize their value by taking their talents to free agency.
The Tigers' current front office leaders, General Manager Jeff Greenberg and President of Baseball Operations Scott Harris, failed to show urgency at last year’s trade deadline, leading to Detroit's free fall entering the postseason. Their comments, which were rooted in the future, are also complicated by the potential to sign some of their top prospects, including outfielder Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle, to big contracts when they make their MLB debut, leaving less money to pay Skubal.
It makes Skubal’s contract an elephant in the dugout until the two sides come to a deal, and Tuesday’s performance may be another subtle reminder that the price just went up.