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NFL Draft 2016: Detroit Lions Should Take a Day 3 Flier on Jaylon Smith

By Zac Snyder

Jan 1, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish linebacker Jaylon Smith (9) is helped off the field by head coach Brian Kelly and trainers after an injury on the first half against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the 2016 Fiesta Bowl at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 1, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish linebacker Jaylon Smith (9) is helped off the field by head coach Brian Kelly and trainers after an injury on the first half against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the 2016 Fiesta Bowl at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports /
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Notre Dame’s Jaylon Smith has plummeted down 2016 NFL Draft boards because of injury concerns, but the Detroit Lions should take a day three flier.

After the college football regular season, Notre Dame linebacker Jaylon Smith was a consensus top five pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. Early big boards are obviously subject to change, but Smith figured to be a top prospect with staying power throughout the draft process.

That is, until a devastating knee injury in the Fighting Irish’s Fiesta Bowl loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes.

The injury put Smith’s draft status in question, particularly with questions about Smith’s long-term health remaining after the NFL’s post-combine medical recheck. Three and a half months removed from surgery, the healing process is all about nerve regeneration at this point.

That can be a slow process and comes with no guarantees of a full recovery.

Walter Football’s Charlie Campbell had the following report after checking in with some team sources about Smith’s medical recheck:

"Sources say they are worried about complications from Smith’s torn ACL and MCL, and the prospect that he may need more corrective surgery. Teams love him on and off the field, but they view him as a major injury risk. Multiple teams said they had him as a sixth- or seventh-rounder. A couple of teams said they took him off their draft board after flunking him medically. Two playoff teams said their medical staff was more optimistic that he would return to play in 2017, and they had him as a potential mid-rounder. Smith would be fortunate to be selected on the second-day of the draft. If he does fall to the third day, he is such a talented player that I believe a team will take a chance on him."

Should the Detroit Lions be one of those teams willing to take a chance on Smith? I believe they should, but no sooner than day three of the draft.

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There is little chance Smith plays a down in 2016 but that shouldn’t be of concern for the Lions to take a day three flier on such a talented player. With ten draft picks currently to their name, the Lions have more picks than they realistically have room for on their roster.

One solution to that “problem” would be to package picks to move up at various points in the draft or to trade out of a pick entirely in favor of a 2017 draft pick. Or they could spend a late pick on Smith knowing he will spend the season on injured reserve.

The idea of taking a player knowing they will “redshirt” is nothing new. The San Francisco 49ers did the same thing when they selected running back Marcus Lattimore in the fourth round of the 2013 NFL Draft. The decision didn’t pay dividends for the 49ers as Lattimore missed the 2013 season, as expected, and only made it as far as the practice field before retiring in November 2014.

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Lattimore’s story highlights the inherent risk in drafting a player with big medical question marks but it’s not an indictment on the strategy as a whole. Every case is different and the lower the pick, the lower the risk.

USA Today’s Tom Pelissero had a good piece looking at Smith and his recovery in friday’s USA Today. I highly recommend reading the whole piece, but the most pertinent part for this discussion is that Smith’s surgeon is optimistic about the recovery. From Pelissero:

"A checkup by NFL teams last weekend in Indianapolis showed Smith remains unable to raise his left foot or swing it out to the side because of an issue with his peroneal nerve. But the “foot-drop” isn’t a surprise at this stage, said his surgeon, Dr. Dan Cooper, who is “optimistic that his knee itself will be stable and a good knee and he’ll get all his strength back. And I also think he has a very good chance of getting his nerve recovery back.”"

If Bob Quinn’s early tenure as Lions general manager can be boiled down to one thought it is that he has avoided “get rich quick schemes” in roster moves he has made so far. Smith is anything but as seeing his potential through will require the Lions to invest time and resources that may or may not pay dividends.

A consistent theme during his pre-draft press conference was the question, “what is best for the Detroit Lions?” So many of the question marks about Smith can be just as equally be applied to healthy players who will be considered on day three.

Many day three picks do not contribute as rookies.
Many day three picks don’t pan out in the long-run.
Many day three picks require team investments that never pay dividends.

Not many day three picks have the upside of Jaylon Smith.

Next: Defense Dominates Early Picks in Lions 7-Round Mock Draft

If a team wants to make a day two investment in Smith, let them. But if Smith is available for one of the Lions’ picks on day three, I’m all for taking the chance. What do you think about the idea of the Lions taking a chance on Jaylon Smith given his injury and uncertain recover? Leave a comment below or let us know on facebook or twitter.

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